Stripe: crowd-implied valuation (event closed without an IPO)

Full market life, walked forward

Polymarket event 'Stripe IPO Closing Market Cap' (stripe-ipo-closing-market-cap), 5 bins, real price history

span: 6moobservations: 136bins: 5

The layer underneath: de-vigged bin probabilities

<80B80–100B100–120B120–140B140B+

The market closed with the No-IPO branch resolving, so there is no valuation print to score against. Shown as a conditional-on-IPO reconstruction: the branch handling is exactly what the live engine's No-IPO exclusion is for.

Walk-forward on real Polymarket history · no look-ahead · 7-day staleness cutoff · raw artifact