US CPI (YoY) on Kalshi: the live MCPI series, backtested

Leads the BLS print by ~6 weeks (measured) · tracked the print to 0.11pp

Kalshi KXCPIYOY threshold ladders (3 months, public trade tape), BLS first releases from ALFRED

span: 66dobservations: 67measured lead vs official print: ~40.5dtracking error at release-eve: 0.11pp

The exact series the live MCPI index runs on, reconstructed from Kalshi's public trade tape and stitched front-month. Green markers are BLS first releases (ALFRED vintages): the index carries each month's number weeks before the print lands; the lead shown is release date minus reference-month start, the convention in our backtest paper. Kalshi data is included following the licensing conversation; nothing here is commercialized.

Walk-forward on real Polymarket history · no look-ahead · 7-day staleness cutoff · raw artifact