Mecone Chicago home value: monthly rollover
4 real monthly rolls · seam 2.428% mean / 3.921% max
Polymarket monthly family (5 events), real price history, front-month stitch
span: 5moobservations: 217seam max / mean: 3.921% / 2.428%
Regional version of the rollover study: consecutive monthly Chicago home-value ladders stitched front-month style. Regional indices are exactly what venues co-design with us.
Roll seams
| Roll into | Seam ($) | Seam (%) |
|---|---|---|
| april-1 | +12.438k | +3.921% |
| april-30 | +7.233k | +2.191% |
| may-31 | +8.926k | +2.631% |
| june-30 | +3.326k | +0.97% |
A naive front-month switch prints these seams. The live index does not switch naively: the anchored glide re-anchors on the latest official print at each roll, so the discontinuity is absorbed, not published.
Walk-forward on real Polymarket history · no look-ahead · 7-day staleness cutoff · raw artifact