Kraken: raw crowd-implied valuation, full market life

Full market life, walked forward

Polymarket event 'Kraken IPO closing market cap above ___ ?' (kraken-ipo-closing-market-cap-above), 7 bins, real price history

span: 7moobservations: 221bins: 7

The layer underneath: de-vigged bin probabilities

$16B$18B$20B$22B$24B$26B$28B

Real Polymarket history from listing to today. The live Mecone index anchors this crowd layer (last primary round) and glides it with IPO timing, so the published index differs from the raw crowd mean here.

Walk-forward on real Polymarket history · no look-ahead · 7-day staleness cutoff · raw artifact