OpenAI: raw crowd-implied valuation, full market life

Moved ~0% on the day an EMA oracle crashed −45%

Polymarket event 'OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap' (openai-ipo-closing-market-cap), 6 bins, real price history

span: 9moobservations: 278bins: 6crash-day move: ~0% (EMA oracle: −45%)

The layer underneath: de-vigged bin probabilities

<500B500–750B750B–1T1T–1.25T1.25T–1.5T1.5T+

Real Polymarket history from listing to today. This is the raw crowd layer: the de-vigged, conditional-on-IPO expected valuation. The live Mecone index anchors this layer to the last funding round and glides it with the crowd's IPO timing, so the published index on markets.mecone.trade differs from the raw crowd mean shown here by construction.

Walk-forward on real Polymarket history · no look-ahead · 7-day staleness cutoff · raw artifact