SpaceX: crowd-implied valuation vs the actual IPO

Terminal error 6.1% vs the resolved $2T–$2.2T outcome

Polymarket event 'SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?' (spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-above), 16 bins, real price history

span: 6moobservations: 180thresholds: 16resolved: >2000 yes, >2200 nocrash-day move: ~0% (EMA oracle: −45%)

The layer underneath: market-quoted P(above each threshold)

>$1T>$1.2T>$1.4T>$1.6T>$1.8T>$2T>$2.2T>$2.4T>$2.6T>$2.8T>$3T>$3.2T>$3.4T>$3.6T>$3.8T>$4T

Six months of real Polymarket history, walked forward with no look-ahead, ending at the actual IPO resolution. The marker shows the day a self-referencing oracle flash-crashed a SpaceX perp elsewhere; the Mecone construction never gapped.

Walk-forward on real Polymarket history · no look-ahead · 7-day staleness cutoff · raw artifact