Fed rate cuts in 2025: crowd-implied count vs the outcome

Terminal error 0.7% vs the resolved 3 outcome

Polymarket event 'How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?' (how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025), 9 bins, real price history

span: 12moobservations: 346bins: 9resolved: 3 (75 bps)

The layer underneath: de-vigged bin probabilities

01 (25 bps)2 (50 bps)3 (75 bps)4 (100 bps)5 (125 bps)6 (150 bps)7 (175 bps)8 or more (200+ bps)

A resolved Polymarket macro ladder: the crowd-implied expected number of 2025 Fed cuts, walked forward through the year and scored by what the Fed actually did.

Walk-forward on real Polymarket history · no look-ahead · 7-day staleness cutoff · raw artifact