Mecone New York City home value: monthly rollover
6 real monthly rolls · seam 1.02% mean / 3.577% max
Polymarket monthly family (7 events), real price history, front-month stitch
span: 6moobservations: 249seam max / mean: 3.577% / 1.02%
Regional version of the rollover study: consecutive monthly New York City home-value ladders stitched front-month style. Regional indices are exactly what venues co-design with us.
Roll seams
| Roll into | Seam ($) | Seam (%) |
|---|---|---|
| march-1 | +0.2k | +0.034% |
| april-1 | -5.29k | -0.898% |
| april-30 | +6.708k | +1.154% |
| may-31 | +21.306k | +3.577% |
| june-30 | -2.28k | -0.377% |
| september-30 | -0.483k | -0.078% |
A naive front-month switch prints these seams. The live index does not switch naively: the anchored glide re-anchors on the latest official print at each roll, so the discontinuity is absorbed, not published.
Walk-forward on real Polymarket history · no look-ahead · 7-day staleness cutoff · raw artifact